Library News & Updates

Groundhog Day: Ridiculous or Reliable?

After more than 130 years on the job, is Punxsutawney Phil (yes, the Groundhog Day groundhog) really accurate?

The first known record of Groundhog Day was in a local paper in 1886 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Since 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 105 times (okay there might have been more than 1 “Phil” over the past century), indicating there is a long winter in store, according to the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Phil has predicted an early spring only 20 times and there is no record for 10 years.

NOAA compared Phil’s predictions from the last 10 years to the actual weather from that year and found that Phil was only right 40% of the time. The last year Phil’s prediction was right was in 2020, when he predicted an early spring.

However, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club insists Phil has never been wrong. It doesn’t have any science to back that up though.

For more on Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day:

• Punxatawny Groundhog Club https://www.groundhog.org/
• Legend and Lore https://www.groundhog.org/legend-and-lore
• NOAA NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
• NOAA Groundhog Day Forecasts and Climate History https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/groundhog-day-forecasts-and-climate-history